ABSTRACT
We analyzed the synchronized movements of lumber futures and southern pine sawtimber stumpage prices in the United States since 2011 and their response to COVID-19 events using wavelet analysis and event study. We found that the sawtimber and lumber prices have followed complex comovement patterns in the time–frequency domain and both reacted to COVID-19 events with a higher response intensity of the lumber price. Although they reacted differently to the early COVID-19 episodes and vaccine news, the sawtimber and lumber prices responded similarly to the COVID-19 pandemic declarations by the World Health Organization and US president, the US Food and Drug Administration panel's recommendation of the first COVID-19 vaccine, and economic stimulus legislation. The patterns of synchronized movements between the sawtimber and lumber prices varied with time and frequency, but their comovement at low frequencies (>64 weeks) has strengthened since 2014 and been led by the lumber futures price;COVID-19 episodes have not changed this trend. The different magnitude of response of the two prices to the COVID-19-related events, as well as the long-term dominance of the lumber price in the comovement, reveals asymmetric price negotiation power and benefit distributions among the agents of the lumber value chain. (English) [ FROM AUTHOR] Nous avons analysé les mouvements synchronisés de la valeur à terme du bois de construction et la valeur du bois de sciage du bois sur pied du pin du sud aux États-Unis depuis 2011 et leur réponse aux événements de la COVID-19 en utilisant l'analyse d'ondelette et l'étude d'événement. Nous avons constaté que la valeur du bois de sciage et celle du bois d'oeuvre ont suivi des modèles de covariation complexes dans le domaine temps-fréquence et que les deux ont réagi aux événements de la COVID-19, avec une intensité de réponse plus élevée de la valeur du bois d'oeuvre. Même si elles ont réagi différemment aux premières manifestations de la COVID-19 et aux nouvelles concernant les vaccins, la valeur du bois de sciage et la valeur du bois d'oeuvre ont répondu similairement aux annonces de pandémie de COVID-19 par l'Organisation mondiale de la Santé et le Président des États-Unis, à la recommandation du groupe d'experts de la Food and Drug Administration américaine concernant le premier vaccin contre la COVID-19 et à la loi sur la relance économique. Les modèles des mouvements synchronisés entre la valeur du bois de sciage et la valeur du bois d'oeuvre ont varié avec le temps et la fréquence, mais leur covariation à de basses fréquences (>64 semaines) s'est renforcée depuis 2014 et a été guidée par la valeur à terme du bois de construction;les manifestations de la COVID-19 n'ont pas changé cette tendance. La magnitude différente de la réponse des deux valeurs aux événements reliés à la COVID-19 de même que la domination à long terme de la valeur du bois d'oeuvre dans la covariation révèlent le pouvoir de négociation de la valeur et la distribution des bénéfices asymétriques entre les agents de la chaîne de valeur du bois d'oeuvre. [Traduit par la Rédaction] (French) [ FROM AUTHOR] Copyright of Canadian Journal of Forest Research is the property of Canadian Science Publishing and its content may not be copied or emailed to multiple sites or posted to a listserv without the copyright holder's express written permission. However, users may print, download, or email articles for individual use. This may be abridged. No warranty is given about the accuracy of the copy. Users should refer to the original published version of the material for the full . (Copyright applies to all s.)
ABSTRACT
Waste paper, an essential substitute for wood and other plant-based fibers in paper making, is an indispensable part of the circular economy; yet, the impacts of China's ban on global waste paper cycles have not been well understood. We modeled the evolution of the global waste paper trade network during 1995-2019. We found that the cumulative trade volume of global waste paper reached 1010 million tons in the last 25 years and showed a downward trend since 2015. The global import center of waste paper experienced a transfer from Europe to East Asia and then to Southeast Asia. The ban has stimulated some developed countries to reduce the exports of unsorted waste paper since 2017, but for many major importers their changes in waste paper trade patterns were related to waste paperboard, which was not banned by China, suggesting that this import change trend may be inevitable and irrespective of China's ban. Besides, India has replaced China to become a new import hub of unsorted waste paper. Our results lay a foundation for exploring the evolution of the future global solid waste cycle under the background of zero import of solid waste increasingly implemented by China and many other developing countries.